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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It commonly functions as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the biggest improvement is handed the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or simply the biggest surprise.

However this year's competition is fundamentally different. The list of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions fading and recent underperformers improving collectively. During an normal season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's up against five other elite coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his special talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to conjure magic from broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal year, he would be the runaway choice. But the current isn't a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. But he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching mix of youth and experience, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

After an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him just a single spot ahead of peers.

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